50 Years of Geopolitical Influences in Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau is marked by low state capacity and chronic political instability at the highest levels of governance. These characteristics have both resulted from and contributed to interventions by external actors. This chapter examines the country's political trajectory over its fifty-year history through the lens of regional and global influences, identifying five distinct periods. Following independence in 1974, Guinea-Bissau aligned with the socialist bloc, particularly the Soviet Union. From the 1980 coup d’état until the civil war in 1998, the country experienced a gradual westernization of governance. The civil war of 1998/1999 and its aftermath were shaped by post-Cold War regional dynamics. A new phase began in 2005, characterized by governance heavily influenced by transnational organized crime, particularly related to drug and timber trafficking, which persisted until 2019. From 2019 onwards, there was an initial phase of increased Senegalese and French influence, which, as of 2024, appears to be shifting towards greater engagement with Russia and China. The chapter concludes that Guinea-Bissau's political trajectory is deeply intertwined with the regional, global, and transnational processes of its time